Harm is right. For Harm. And for many like him.
Jim and I are right. For us. And many like us.
Although, I think I may be a better example of a new user. Perhaps after leaving CS3 behind and just renting from the Creative Cloud for almost the last year I am almost like a new user. Certainly in a a financial sense I am. The new pricing structure let me sneak back into the game. I didn't have to pay for an entirely new package of all of the software I want to use. Plus, I got software that you don't have. Can't have. Not without a subscription.
Nobody knows how many CC users there will be. The reason there are only 500,000 may very well be that there are millions of CS6 owners out there who have no need to rent what they already own. But when the new software comes out on June 17th, then we'll know. For the first few weeks after the release, if there is a mad rush to download CC, then Adobe wins.
If there is no mad rush and everyone holds back, then expect Adobe to capitulate.
My guess is that my idea for providing an exit strategy will be the one they use. But it is just a guess.